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Gold Wheres it Going? How the World’s Safehaven has lately turned into Just another Risk Asset

Gold has been one of the hottest investments on the planet the last few years. However only a few people understand that there is a lot of money to be made on the daily, weekly, and monthly, fluctuations of gold. “Gold bugs” will tell you and they are correct its an ultimate store of wealth, hedge against hyperinflation, hedge against US fiscal problems with US dollar, and so on.

I am here to give you a different perspective. All of those are correct, but lets get down to the core of why gold moves and how it does move.

In August, the US got downgraded from AAA to AA from S an P ratings. This caused a huge move in Gold based on Safe haven demand.  There are two reasons gold moves, either it moves as a safe haven asset when the stock market is crashing, US political gridlock damages economy, Fed Cuts Interest Rates, Fed prints more money via quantitative easing etc.  The move that has taken Gold from 1000 to where is it now is the QE1 and QE2 Programs enacted by our federal reserve.

When you look at the Financial Crisis of 2008,  Gold hit a high of 1000, and during the crisis sold off to below 800.

The same thing has happened with the European Debt Crisis, even though gold is still a winning safe haven trade, when big Hedge Funds, are loosing a lot of money they have to sell their winners to cover losses. John Paulson , of Paulson and Co, was the largest shareholder in the Spider Gold ETF GLD.  His 13f Filing shows he recently cut a big position in gold. His fund is down 44% this year, and this is from a guy that made billions betting on sub prime mortgages to fail, which means his investors made money while everyone else in 2008 lost.  His other trades were doing so poorly that many in the market feared he would have to sell his only big winner gold, in order to help his fund. All other hedge funds followed.  This is why we have seen a change in Gold lately.

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